You may also want to throttle those ratings in divisional matchups, since those rivals know each other well and often play tighter games (divisional underdogs covering 52.5% of the time since 2000). Things like injuries, weather, and situational challenges (and advantages) can skew a spread up and down. Jalen Hurts at +1200 is an intriguing target. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow all boast +700 odds. Not all games are as cut and dry as adding and subtracting the NFL power ratings. A true grinder, hed rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay. Now, this is just a starting point and one slice of information to fold into your overall handicap. That actually sits pretty close to the current spread for this Week 1 opener, with the Chiefs bouncing between -6.5 and -7 across the industry. Adding 2.25 to the margin of 4.77 points gives us a projected spread of Kansas City -7.02.

The game is being played in Arrowhead Stadium, which I have given a home-field value of 2.25 points based on KC's recent ATS success at home and the impact of the crowd and venue on opponents (home-field value has been diminishing in recent seasons, but this is a prime-time game and ring night for the Chiefs, so expect an always loud KC crowd to be “well oiled” by the time the 8:20 p.m.

My NFL ratings have Kansas City’s spread value at 21.84 points ( rating/100 x biggest spread margin in NFL, which is 27 points) and Detroit at 17.07 - a difference of 4.77 points.

The Detroit Lions visit the Kansas City Chiefs in the season opener on September 7.

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